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Method

Futures wheel

A diagram that places a change at the center and, in rings, its direct consequences, the consequences of those consequences, and so on.

In Spanish
Rueda de futuros
Origin
Glenn (1972)
Output
A diagram of the consequences of a change, in rings

What it’s for

Helps reveal second-order effects that are not visible at first glance.

Key elements

  • A change at the center

    Specific and well phrased.

  • Rings

    First what is direct; then what that leads to.

  • As a group

    Several perspectives find more effects.

How it’s done

  1. Write the change at the center.

  2. Add the direct consequences.

  3. Continue with the indirect ones.

Applications in design

  • When to use it

    Before launching a change, to anticipate unintended effects.

  • Avoid

    Stopping at the first ring.

  • Don’t fall for it

    Mark which consequences are likely and which are only possible.

Connections

Builds on

Related to

Authors and works

  1. 1972

    Jerome C. Glenn

    Devised it as a structured brainstorm about the consequences of a change.

Sources

Original sources

  • Glenn, J. C. (1972). Futurizing teaching vs. futures course. Social Science Record, 9(3).

Last reviewed: