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Model

Futures cone

A cone-shaped diagram that, starting from the present, distinguishes possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures.

In Spanish
Cono de futuros
Origin
Henchey (1978); Hancock and Bezold’s cone (1994)

What problem it addresses

It helps you not to confuse what will probably happen with the only thing that can happen, or with what we want to happen.

Components

  • Possible

    Everything that could happen.

  • Plausible

    What could happen given what we know today.

  • Probable

    What is most likely to happen if nothing changes.

  • Preferable

    What we want to happen: it depends on values.

An example

Imagine you are designing how we will get around a city twenty years from now.

Only the probabletodayprobable
More cars and more traffic, because that is where the trend points. A single future.
The whole conetodaypossibleplausibleprobablepreferable
The probable, other plausible options and one we choose as preferable. Several futures and a direction.

The probable need not be the preferable: the cone shows the space between the two.

How it works

  1. From today a range opens up of futures that widens over time.

  2. Each layer is narrower: the possible contains the plausible, and the plausible, the probable.

  3. The preferable is a choice of values, and it may lie outside the probable.

Applications in design

  • Use it like this

    In a workshop, place each idea on the cone: is it possible, plausible or probable? Which does the team prefer?

  • Avoid

    Calling probable what you simply wish for.

  • Don’t fall for it

    Revisit the cone from time to time: the plausible shifts as the present changes.

Connections

Used in

Authors and works

  1. 1978

    Norman Henchey

    Proposed distinguishing possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures.

  2. 1994

    Trevor Hancock and Clement Bezold

    Drew those classes as a cone opening out from the present.

  3. 2003

    Joseph Voros

    Expanded it with more categories and spread it in foresight.

  4. 2013

    Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby

    Brought it into speculative design, based on a version by Stuart Candy.

Sources

Original sources

  • Henchey, N. (1978). Making sense of futures studies. Alternatives, 7(2), 24–28.
  • Hancock, T., & Bezold, C. (1994). Possible futures, preferable futures. Healthcare Forum Journal, 37(2), 23–29.
  • Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. View source: Voros, J. (2003)
  • Dunne, A., & Raby, F. (2013). Speculative everything: Design, fiction, and social dreaming. MIT Press.

Secondary sources

Last reviewed: