Anchoring
The first number we see becomes the starting point for what we estimate next, even if it has nothing to do with it.
What problem it addresses
It explains why an initial price, a suggested figure or a starting value moves our estimates and what we are willing to pay.
An example
A rigged wheel of fortune that could only stop at 10 or 65 was spun. Then people were asked what percentage of UN countries are African.
A random number, which everyone knew was irrelevant, moved the answer by 20 points.
Why it happens
Faced with a hard question, we look for a starting point, and the nearest number will do.
We adjust from there, but not far enough.
The answer stays close to the anchor, even when we know it made no sense.
Applications in design
Use it like this
Show an honest reference first, like the usual price or the average, so people can judge well.
Avoid
Inventing crossed-out prices or inflated figures to make everything else look cheap.
Don’t fall for it
Before negotiating or estimating, settle on your own figure before you see someone else’s.
25% → 45%
What the research says
Median answer after seeing a 10 or a 65 on the wheel (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974).
Solid evidence. It is one of the best-replicated effects. The Many Labs project confirmed it in labs across several countries (Klein et al., 2014).
Connections
Used in
Authors and works
- 1974
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
Described it as one of the shortcuts we use to judge under uncertainty.
Sources
Original sources
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131. View source: Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974)
Academic reviews
- Klein, R. A., Ratliff, K. A., Vianello, M. et al. (2014). Investigating variation in replicability: A “Many Labs” replication project. Social Psychology, 45(3), 142–152. View source: Klein, R. A., Ratliff, K. A., Vianello, M. et al. (2014)
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