Four generic alternative futures

Four types of future from which almost all images of the future derive: continued growth, collapse, discipline and transformation.

What problem it addresses

Avoids thinking about a single future, almost always the one of continued growth, and forces you to explore the others too.

Continued growth
The future as more of the same: the economy and technology keep growing.
Collapse
Something fails on a large scale and the current system breaks down.
Discipline
Society organizes around shared values and puts limits on growth.
Transformation
A deep change, often technological, creates a very different society.

Think about how people will eat in your city thirty years from now.

A single future

It is taken for granted that everything keeps growing: more choice, more delivery, faster. The official story.

Four futures

Growth, collapse, living within limits or changing the way of life: four different cities. More questions.

Thinking through all four helps design something that works even if the expected future doesn’t arrive.

Use it like this
Write a short scenario for each of the four and test your idea in all of them.
Avoid
Telling the collapse story only to scare, or the transformation story only to sell.
Don’t fall for it
If you only imagine growth, ask what would happen to your design in the other three.

Dator, J. (2009). Alternative futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 1–18. View source: Dator, J. (2009)

Last reviewed: October 22, 2026