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Field

Futures studies

Systematically studies possible, probable and desirable futures to guide today’s decisions, without claiming to predict.

In Spanish
Estudios de futuros
Origin
Precursors in Polak (1955) and Kahn and Wiener (1967)

What it studies

How to think about what doesn’t exist yet without falling into fortune-telling or science fiction. For design, it provides tools to imagine alternatives, spot changes in time and choose which future to design toward.

Principles

  • Futures, plural

    There is no single future to guess, but several to explore.

  • The preferable is chosen

    Beyond the probable, it matters to decide which future we want.

  • Look early

    Big changes usually give early warning through small signals.

Applications in design

  • Use it like this

    Before designing “for the future,” ask which one: explore several and choose one with care.

  • Avoid

    Presenting a single forecast as if it were what will happen.

  • Don’t fall for it

    Review your assumptions often: futures change as the present changes.

Theories and concepts

Model

Futures cone

From today, possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures open up.

Concept

Weak signals

Small hints of a change that is still uncertain but may grow.

Methods and tools

  • MethodCausal layered analysis (CLA)Looking at a problem in four layers, from what the news says to the myths that sustain it.
  • MethodBackcastingImagining the future you want and walking back to today to see which steps lead there.
  • MethodHorizon scanningContinuously looking for signals of change outside your field to anticipate what may come.
  • MethodDelphi methodConsulting experts over several rounds of questionnaires, showing them the group’s answers each time.
  • MethodScenario planningImagining several plausible futures to make decisions that hold up in all of them.
  • MethodThree horizonsA framework for talking about change with three curves: what works today, what's coming and the transition.
  • MethodFutures wheelA diagram for exploring the direct and indirect consequences of a change.
  • MethodThe Thing From The FutureA card game for imagining objects from possible futures and talking about them.
  • MethodTrend researchDetecting and explaining changes in society, culture and consumption before they become widespread.

Connections

Used in

Authors and works

  1. Fred Polak

    Showed that shared images of the future guide a society.

  2. Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener

    Used scenarios to explore alternative futures in The Year 2000 (1967).

  3. Jim Dator

    Set out, at the Manoa School, the four archetypal futures.

Sources

Original sources

  • Polak, F. (1973). The image of the future (E. Boulding, Trans. & Abr.). Elsevier. (Original work published 1955 as De toekomst is verleden tijd)
  • Kahn, H., & Wiener, A. J. (1967). The year 2000: A framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. Macmillan.
  • Dator, J. (2009). Alternative futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 1–18. View source: Dator, J. (2009)
  • Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. View source: Voros, J. (2003)

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