Image of the future
The idea that shared images of the future steer a society: when they are vivid and positive they drive it forward, and when they fade, it declines.
What problem it addresses
Explains why it matters which futures we imagine and tell, not just which futures we calculate.
An example
Imagine two communities with the same resources for the next ten years.
For Polak, the image of the future doesn’t just describe a change: it helps make it happen.
Why it happens
We imagine the future before we build it.
A shared image steers many decisions at once.
If the image fades, the shared direction is lost.
Applications in design
Use it like this
Before proposing solutions, build with the team a concrete, shared image of where it wants to go.
Avoid
Selling an optimistic vision that no one can deliver.
Don’t fall for it
Ask which images of the future dominate your sector: they also shape what you design.
1955
What the research says
Polak reviewed the history of the West, from classical Greece to modern democracy, and observed that major changes were preceded or accompanied by positive images of the future (Polak, 1955).
Debated evidence. It is a historical, interpretive thesis that is hard to test with data. Elise Boulding translated it into English in 1961 and published an abridged version in 1973.
Connections
Authors and works
- 1955
Fred Polak
Formulated the theory in De toekomst is verleden tijd.
Elise Boulding
Translated it into English and spread it in futures studies.
Sources
Original sources
- Polak, F. (1973). The image of the future (E. Boulding, Trans. & Abr.). Elsevier. (Original work published 1955 as De toekomst is verleden tijd)
Last reviewed: