Horizon scanning
Systematically and continuously looking for and reviewing signals of change in the wider context (technology, society, economy, politics, environment) to anticipate what may come.
What it’s for
It helps you spot early changes that often start outside your own industry, before they become obvious.
Key elements
Look far and to the sides
Outside your own industry, not just at the competition.
Continuous
A team habit, not a one-off report.
Record and share
Each signal with its source and why it might matter.
How it’s done
Define the scope. Which topics and which sources will be monitored.
Collect signals. News, products, studies and new behaviors.
Cluster and assess. Which patterns appear and what they could change.
Applications in design
When to use it
On an ongoing basis, so you don’t learn too late about the changes that affect your industry.
Avoid
Reading only sources from your own industry: they will confirm what you already know.
Don’t fall for it
Set aside a fixed time to review signals as a team, and write down why each one caught your attention: in a few months you won’t remember.
Connections
Authors and works
- 1967
Francis J. Aguilar
Introduced systematic scanning of the business environment and described its modes.
- 2006
Wendy L. Schultz
Analyzed its use in evidence-based public policy in the United Kingdom.
Sources
Original sources
- Aguilar, F. J. (1967). Scanning the business environment. Macmillan.
Secondary sources
- Schultz, W. L. (2006). The cultural contradictions of managing change: Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context. Foresight, 8(4), 3–12. View source: Schultz, W. L. (2006)
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