Three horizons
A framework for thinking about long-term change with three horizons that coexist: the current system, the future that is starting to appear, and the transitional innovations between them.
What it’s for
Helps a group with different views talk about the future in an orderly way and tell apart changes that improve the usual from those that open a new path.
Key elements
First horizon
The system that dominates today and is losing its fit with new conditions.
Third horizon
What is emerging at the margins and could replace it in the long run.
Second horizon
Transitional innovations; some help reach the third, others end up absorbed by the first.
How it’s done
Describe the present and what is no longer working.
Look for signs of the future that already exist at the margins.
Discuss the innovations that can lead from one to the other.
Applications in design
When to use it
In strategy or futures workshops, when a group needs to agree on where to change.
Avoid
Confusing it with another “three horizons” model from business consulting, which is about a company's growth, not the transformation of a system.
Don’t fall for it
Don't discard the first horizon: while the new arrives, what exists today has to keep working.
Connections
Builds on
Authors and works
- 2016
B. Sharpe, A. Hodgson, G. Leicester, A. Lyon and I. Fazey
They presented it as a dialogue practice for transformation and linked a mindset to each horizon: the manager's, the entrepreneur's and the visionary's.
Sources
Original sources
- Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016). Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47. View source: Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016)
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