Backcasting
A method that starts by describing a desirable future and, from there, works backward to find which decisions and changes would be needed to reach it.
What it’s for
It helps you avoid simply extending today's trends when the goal requires a big change.
Key elements
The destination first
Start from how the future should be, not from how it will be if nothing changes.
Backward
From that future, set milestones until you reach the present.
What has to change
The result is concrete decisions, not a prediction.
How it’s done
Describe the future you want to reach.
From there, working backward, mark the intermediate milestones.
Decide what to do today to start the journey.
Applications in design
When to use it
When the goal is clear and far away, like a zero-waste service in ten years.
Avoid
Describing the desired future so vaguely that you can't set milestones.
Don’t fall for it
It isn't a forecast: combine it with scenarios to see what could knock the path off course.
Connections
Authors and works
- 1982
John B. Robinson
He proposed it as a method for analyzing energy policy, starting from desirable futures instead of forecasts.
Sources
Original sources
- Robinson, J. B. (1982). Energy backcasting: A proposed method of policy analysis. Energy Policy, 10(4), 337–344.
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