Explore futures
To anticipate change and discuss which direction to take. In each step, choose one or more entries; open “How it’s used” to decide without leaving this page.
Step 1
Spot signals
Small clues of big changes.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesEarly, imprecise hints of a change that is not yet evident but could come to have a large impact.
Why it happens
- Big changes often start with small, odd cases.
- At first they are ambiguous and easy to dismiss as noise.
- If you wait for clear evidence, by the time it arrives there is little room left.
- Avoid
- Presenting an anecdote as if it were already a trend.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesSystematically and continuously looking for and reviewing signals of change in the wider context (technology, society, economy, politics, environment) to anticipate what may come.
How it’s done
- Define the scope. Which topics and which sources will be monitored.
- Collect signals. News, products, studies and new behaviors.
- Cluster and assess. Which patterns appear and what they could change.
- Output
- An organized collection of signals of change
- Avoid
- Reading only sources from your own industry: they will confirm what you already know.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA method for detecting, organizing and explaining changes in behaviors, values and consumption, and anticipating how they may affect a product, brand or service.
How it’s done
- Gather signals.
- Group them into a trend map.
- Translate them into design opportunities.
- Output
- An organized list of trends and how they could affect the project
- Avoid
- Mistaking a passing fad for a trend.
Step 2
Think through consequences
What would happen next.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA diagram that places a change at the center and, in rings, its direct consequences, the consequences of those consequences, and so on.
How it’s done
- Write the change at the center.
- Add the direct consequences.
- Continue with the indirect ones.
- Output
- A diagram of the consequences of a change, in rings
- Avoid
- Stopping at the first ring.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA cone-shaped diagram that, starting from the present, distinguishes possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures.
How it works
- From today a range opens up of futures that widens over time.
- Each layer is narrower: the possible contains the plausible, and the plausible, the probable.
- The preferable is a choice of values, and it may lie outside the probable.
- Avoid
- Calling probable what you simply wish for.
Step 3
Build scenarios
Several possible futures, not a prediction.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA method for building several plausible stories of the future and checking which decisions work in all of them.
How it’s done
- Choose the critical uncertainties: what matters most and is least known.
- Crossing them produces several different, plausible futures.
- Each decision is tested in every scenario.
- Output
- Several plausible stories of the future and the decisions that work in all of them
- Avoid
- Making a “good”, a “bad” and a “normal” scenario: in the end only the middle one gets looked at.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesFour types of future from which almost all images of the future derive: continued growth, collapse, discipline and transformation.
How it works
- Images of the future repeat in the news, films and plans.
- Dator grouped them into four basic stories.
- Exploring all four brings out the assumptions behind each plan.
- Avoid
- Telling the collapse story only to scare, or the transformation story only to sell.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA method that starts by describing a desirable future and, from there, works backward to find which decisions and changes would be needed to reach it.
How it’s done
- Describe the future you want to reach.
- From there, working backward, mark the intermediate milestones.
- Decide what to do today to start the journey.
- Output
- A picture of the desired future and the steps to get there from today
- Avoid
- Describing the desired future so vaguely that you can't set milestones.
Step 4
Make them tangible
Objects and stories that make them open to discussion.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesUses prototypes that work inside a fictional world, such as ads, catalogs or manuals, so a future change seems believable and can be discussed.
How it works
- The object appears in its world, with the details of daily life.
- The ordinary makes believable what doesn’t exist yet.
- Once we believe it, we can discuss what would change.
- Avoid
- Making it so realistic that it deceives: always say it is fiction.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA technology that doesn't exist yet, shown working normally inside a film or a story, as if it were already real.
Why it happens
- The technology appears working, without glitches or doubts.
- The characters use it as something ordinary.
- The audience sees it as possible, useful and desirable.
- Avoid
- Using a dazzling scene to hide what the technology can't do.
How it’s used
Full entry, with sourcesA card game in which players combine a type of future, a place, a kind of object and a mood to imagine a specific object from that future and discuss it as a group.
How it’s done
- Draw the cards one of each type.
- Describe an object from that future, each person on their own.
- Discuss the ideas as a group and pick the most telling ones.
- Output
- Descriptions of objects from possible futures, to discuss as a group
- Avoid
- Stopping at the witty idea: the value lies in discussing what each object says about that future.